Newsletter to Congress:
Top 5:
1. The fighting in Gaza continues, as Hamas demands full withdrawal of Israeli forces as a condition to a hostage deal, a return to October 6. 11 Israeli soldiers died in the past two weeks.
2. The bodies of six civilian hostages were rescued from Gaza; all died in their captivity, underscoring the urgency of reaching a deal - with 63% of Israelis support it. 109 hostages are still in Hamas's hands.
3. A massive rocket attack on Israeli cities and strategic locations, as retaliation for Israel killing Hezbollah commander, was prevented by a preemptive strike on the 25th of August.
4. Massive political rift over the memorial ceremony for the October 7 massacare, with several Kibbutzim and the Hostage Families HQ refuse to participate in the government-led one.
5. IDF Chief Intelligence has left, taking responsibility for the October 7 failure and calling to establish a National State Commision of Inquiry.
The War in Gaza
Recovery of Bodies and Status of Hostages: This week, the bodies of six civilians hostages were recovered from Gaza in a military operation: Alex Danzig, Yoram Metzger, Avraham Mondar, Chaim Perry, Yagav Bukshtab, and Nadav Poplow, all were kidnapped alive on October 7.
The hostages' bodies showed signs of gunfire that did not appear on the Hamas militants who were with them in the tunnel, suggesting that Hamas killed these six hostages out of fear of a potential rescue operation. This brings the number of hostages currently held by Hamas to 109, with Israeli estimates suggesting that only 74 of them are alive.
War Status: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Hamas's Rafah Brigade has been destroyed and that 150 tunnels were demolished along the Philadelphi (Israel-Egypt) route, including a 3-meter-high tunnel that allowed vehicle passage.
Gallant and the IDF claim that although there are likely still hidden shafts along the Philadelphi route, the IDF has achieved operational control over it. In the last two weeks, 10 more Israeli lives were lost in the Gaza Strip, bringing the number of Israeli soldiers killed in the Iron Swords War to 701.
Hostage Deal Negotiations: Negotiations for the return of hostages began and stopped again this week. Even after the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, no significant progress was reported, as Hamas still rejects Israel’s position to control the Philadelphi route, demands full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza - essentially returning to “October 6” status-quo.
It should be noted that with the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, he was replaces by Yehya Sinwar, the chief architect of the October 7 massacre. This move has solidified Sinwar's power within Hamas and made it a movement shaped in his image, complicating the progress of negotiations.
From an internal Israeli political perspective, there is significant anger towards Netanyahu's government, which is seen as preventing a hostage deal that: according to recent poll by Channel 12, has 63% support among Israelis, with only 12% who opposes it.
Polio Outbreak: Last month, the Israeli Ministry of Health found evidence of the polio virus in Gaza, and last week it was reported that a 10-month-old baby in Gaza contracted the virus. As a result, an order was issued to vaccinate all IDF soldiers entering the Gaza Strip, and Israel must prepare to prevent an epidemic.
The Iranian Axis
The Northern Front: On August 25, the IDF attacked Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon in an effort to prevent Hezbollah from launching hundreds of rockets and drones at population centers and strategic bases in Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shokri a month ago.
Hezbollah did manage to launch rockets into Israel, some of which fell in Israeli cities and towns, but did not hit strategic military locations like the Glilot base of Military Intelligence. Within Israel, there were direct hits on homes, and one naval soldier was killed by shrapnel. A special emergency situation was declared in the Israeli home front, lasting until the afternoon of the same day. Reuters reported that Israel sent messages to Hezbollah indicating that it did not seek a broad war.
Iran: According to foreign media estimates, Iran wishes to delay its retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh a month ago due to increased U.S. presence in the region. Additionally, this week, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown arrived in Jordan and will later visit Israel to discuss with IDF Chief of Staff Hertzi Halevi possible scenarios of attacks from Hezbollah or Iran.
Displaced Persons: As of June 2024, more than 17,000 displaced persons from the north are currently staying in hotels across the country, and approximately 51,000 displaced individuals from the north are residing in other locations.
Domestic Arena
Memorial Ceremony: With the Knesset on recess, most disputes in Israel revolve around government actions - specifically, the question of the memorial ceremony for the October 7 massacre and its management. With the responsibility for organizing the ceremony assigned to Transportation Minister Miri Regev, several kibbutzim in the Gaza envelope and the Hostages Families HQ have announced their intention to boycott the ceremony, as they hold Minister Regev, being part of the government, accountable. An alternative event will be led by them, joined by notable figures from the Israeli non-Netanyahu supporting right.
Responsibility for the Massacre: Simultaneously, the Head of the Intelligence Directorate, Major General Aharon Haliva, has concluded his role. Haliva, one of the key figures responsible for the October 7 failure, is the first senior official to take responsibility - in his farewell speech, he spoke extensively about the need to bear responsibility, apologize, and establish a National State Commission of Inquiry to examine all factors leading to October 7.
It should be noted that Haliva's successor, Major General Shlomi Binder, was also responsible for October 7 - at the time, Binder was the Head of the IDF Operations Directorate, responsible for its operations during emergencies, hence the operational failure on October 7 is also attributed to Binder.
Alongside the intelligence and operational failures, there is also a diplomatic failure - the strategic failure of Benjamin Netanyahu's approach to strengthen the split between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas and "contain" it as an obstacle to the diplomatic process. Netanyahu has yet to take responsibility.
コメント