Newsletter to Congress:
The Chaos continues - both in Israel and around it. Please find below the bi-weekly report by LIBRAEL - Liberal Israel, around the current events in the region.
Top 5:
1. More than 10 IDF soldier and dozens of Palestinian civilians were killed, including in safe areas that were identified as Hamas targets
2. Hostage deal seems less likely by the day, however public discourse around the Philadelphi Route, the main resistance to such a deal, is gone
3. Massive escalation in Israel's north, following the precise attack of Hezbollah's pagers and communication devices. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli civilians are under fire.
4. PM Netanyahu tried to replace Defense Minister Gallant, a political rival, with MK Gideon Sa'ar, another political rival, but faced protests and eventually the replacement did not occur.
5. Iran's president presenting a new vision of Islamic unity, but aspires closer relations with Russia and China and stick to "resistance" to Israel.
Domestic Scene:
Chaos Around a Potential Defense Minister Replacement
Defense Minister Replacement: Last week, Prime Minister Netanyahu negotiated with MK Gideon Sa’ar from the National Unity Party in the opposition about joining the government, offering him the position of Defense Minister to replace Gallant from Likud, who is considered a rival of Netanyahu.
This negotiation sparked massive criticism from the opposition and protest organizations, accusing Netanyahu of attempting to replace a professional Defense Minister with an MK lacking significant security experience, in the midst of war, for political reasons. Additionally, government opponents claim that Sa’ar might be willing to pass a military draft law that favors the ultra-Orthodox parties, something Gallant opposes because he aims to pass such a law with broad consensus between the coalition and the opposition, based on the IDF’s needs.
Protests: Protests against the government and in support of a deal for the release of the hostages continued over the past two weeks, though less widespread than before. Additionally, a protest was held outside the home of MK Gideon Sa’ar to pressure him not to join Netanyahu’s government. Ultimately, Sa’ar announced that he would decline the offer, but his public standing suffered, and he is now perceived as someone willing to compromise his values for a position.
Broad Government: leaders of the opposition - Opposition Leader Yair Lapid and former defense ministers Benny Gantz and Avigdor Leiberman - met to jointly discuss their actions should an all-out war break with Hezbollah. While they may join the government to show unity, it is possibile that they will demand changes in how it will operate, given the experience of the last unity government in which Gantz was a part of. This is especially important if Netanyahu will, as reported, fire Gallant whatsoever and appoint a loyalist instead.
Gaza:
Continuing Deadly Fighting, Stalemate in the Deal Negotiations
There has been no significant progress in the hostage deal. The U.S. still has a proposal on the table, alongside reports in the American media expressing pessimism about reaching an agreement.
The discourse about the Philadelphi Route and its importance has completely disappeared from the media, indicating that it was merely a smokescreen by the government to thwart the possibility of a hostage deal.
Although the appointment of Sa’ar as Defense Minister was canceled due to escalation in the north, it is possible he will be appointed to another ministerial position, which could further delay the hostage deal due to his opposition.
Fighting in Gaza continues, and in the last two weeks, over ten Israeli soldiers and dozens of Palestinian civilians have been killed, including civilians in protected areas identified by Israeli intelligence as Hamas targets. The IDF investigated those incidents, and should malpractice be found, such as attacking those targets without sufficient intelligence, the commanding officers will be held accountable.
Despite the ongoing fighting, the 98th Infantry Division and the 7th Armored Brigade have been redirected to the northern front.
The Shiite Axis:
Iran Continues to Attempt to Harm and Exhaust Israel via Its Proxy Forces
Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, presented a vision for regional Islamic unity, including deepening cooperation with Russia and China. While denying Iran’s aspiration for nuclear weapons, Pezeshkian emphasizes the need to continue resisting Israel and declares that Iran will never give up its missile program.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is preparing for a confrontation with Israel in Lebanon, against the backdrop of escalating tensions: the explosion of pagers on September 17th, the explosion of communication devices on September 18th, and the assassination of Hezbollah's operations unit commander, Ibrahim Aqil, a Hezbollah mastermind who planned a "Lebanese October 7th." In response, Hezbollah has increased its range of rocket fire, placing hundreds of Israeli towns and cities within strike range, endangering hundreds of thousands of Israelis.
Hezbollah, which refuses to cease fire and comply with UNSC Resolution 1701, is thereby preventing hundreds of thousands of Israelis from returning home safely.
At the same time, the Houthis from Yemen fired a ballistic missile towards Israel, and Iranian militias operating in Iraq fired rockets as well; all were intercepted. This continues the trend of Iranian proxies attempting to engage Israel from across the region.
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