Newsletter to Congress:
As Israel marks the anniversary of the October 7 Massacre, Israelis are being attacked by both Hezbolláh and Iran; Hostage release and a ceasefire, however, seem less likely than ever
Top 5:
1. Israeli Action in Lebanon:
In response to the escalating threat posed by Hezbollah, the IDF has taken more proactive steps, including targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leadership and ground maneuvers in Lebanon to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
2. Iranian Missile Response:
After Israel’s operations significantly weakened Hezbollah, Iran retaliated by launching 182 ballistic missiles toward Israeli cities, most of which were intercepted through combined efforts of Israel, the U.S., and Jordan, with minimal casualties.
3. Stalled Negotiations:
Negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire have seen little progress, exacerbated by declining media attention and the belief that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has gone underground and is uninterested in any deal.
4. Renewed Hamas Activity in Gaza:
Hamas has reorganized in humanitarian areas of Gaza, leading to Israeli ground operations in Jabalia and an expansion of security corridors in Gaza, yet an Israeli long-term strategy for Gaza’s governance post-Hamas remains unclear.
5. Gideon Sa’ar Joins the Coalition:
Gideon Sa’ar has entered the Netanyahu-led coalition. Although he did not secure the Defense Minister role, his presence reduces Itamar Ben-Gvir’s influence and positions him to negotiate independently on key votes.
Full Report:
The Northern Front:
In light of the threat Hezbollah poses to the residents of northern Israel, who were forced to flee their homes in October 2023 due to fears of a Hezbollah invasion, Israel has begun to take more active measures on the northern front over the past two weeks. This is based on the assessment that merely a diplomatic agreement will not succeed in distancing Hezbollah from the border.
These actions include a series of targeted killings of the organization's leadership, including the assassination of the organization's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, following the explosion of Hezbollah's beepers. Israel's activities escalated further this week when it initiated a ground maneuver within Lebanese territory to force Hezbollah to withdraw from the Israeli border and beyond the Litani River, thereby enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006.
In response to Israel's actions, which significantly weakened Hezbollah's power, Iran launched 182 ballistic missiles towards Israeli population centers. Most of the missiles were intercepted through the combined efforts of Israel, the U.S., and Jordan, causing no casualties except for the death of a Palestinian civilian in Jericho. The Israeli government has already announced that it will respond to the Iranian aggression, but it has not yet declared how it intends to do so.
The Palestinian Front:
No significant progress has been made in the negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire, against the backdrop of decreased media coverage in Israel and the U.S. assessment that Sinwar has gone underground and is not interested in a deal. Simultaneously, various media outlets report that Israel is considering an offer to exile Sinwar to South Sudan in exchange for a hostage deal and ceasefire. Additionally, security officials estimate that the fighting in the north and the ground maneuver could impact a ceasefire in the south and the hostage deal. However, Israel is not inclined to advance such an agreement, also due to operational achievements.
In the Gaza Strip, Hamas has reorganized in humanitarian areas, prompting the IDF to launch a ground operation in Jabalia with a raid on the neighborhood. Additionally, the IDF decided to expand the Netzarim corridor, which bisects Gaza, to deepen its security hold.
Before the operation, many steps were taken to prevent harm to civilian populations, and they were called to evacuate the neighborhoods where the IDF would enter, alongside air force strikes on Hamas militants who had established themselves in a UNRWA humanitarian area.
It is evident that in many places from which the IDF previously withdrew, Hamas has reorganized as residents returned to the area. This is due to the fact that the Israeli government still lacks a clear strategy for “the day after” and for finding a governing alternative to Hamas.
The Political Front:
MK Gideon Sa'ar is joining the coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu with his National Right party, though without a coalition agreement except for a position in the security cabinet and a minister without portfolio role. This move expands the coalition from 64 to 68 seats, neutralizes the veto power of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and increases the likelihood that the coalition will survive politically until the end of 2026, the original election date.
Gideon Sa'ar is considered hawkish on security matters but relatively liberal on social and religious issues. For many years, there was animosity between him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to Sa'ar's statements that Netanyahu acts out of personal motives only. However, since October 7 and the outbreak of the war, relations between the two have tightened, culminating in his official entry into the government.
Critics of Sa'ar argue that this is a cynical political move meant to secure him a position, while supporters claim that Sa'ar will be able to steer government policy in a more hawkish direction and limit Ben-Gvir’s influence.
It is noted that Sa'ar entered without securing his initial demand to be appointed Defense Minister in place of Yoav Gallant, another political rival of Netanyahu. This fact is a disadvantage for him but also an advantage, as he is not currently bound by coalition discipline and can negotiate on each vote individually.
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