Newsletter to Congress:
Top 4:
Hostage Deal on the Brink: Violations, Delays, and Bombings Keep the Deal Fragile
Trump’s Plan Gains Israeli Support, Just As Any Other Plan Would
Poll: Netanyahu Still Loses Re-election, Bennett Keeps Power; Vast Backing for Hostage Deal
"Qatargate" Scandal: Netanyahu Aides Accused of Promoting Qatar’s Interests
Full Report:
1. The Hostage Deal on the Verge of Crisis
Over the past month, the hostage release and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas have faced a crisis. Statements by President Donald Trump, warning that "hell will break loose" unless all hostages are released, were seen by the Israeli right as an opportunity to resume the fighting, jeopardizing the continuation of releases.
However, the fighting did not ultimately resume. Hamas' violations - particularly the return of an unidentified Palestinian woman's body instead of that of Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas, as well as the bombing of five buses in central Israel (which by luck exploded at night) - were perceived as breaches of the agreement. In response, Israel announced it would delay the release of the next group of Palestinian prisoners, which Hamas claims is a violation, though it has still refrained from escalating the situation further.
In the past month, 18 Israeli hostages and five Thai hostages were released alive. Additionally, the bodies of eight hostages who were kidnapped alive on October 7 but later murdered by Hamas were returned, including 83-year-old peace activist Oded Lifshitz, 32-year-old educator Shiri Bibas, and her two children—four-year-old Ariel and nine-month-old Kfir.
2. President Trump's Gaza Vision
On the surface, the Israeli public's reaction to President Donald Trump’s transfer idea has been overwhelmingly positive. Polls show broad support across the political spectrum, reaching up to 72% approval. Positive reactions from right-wing politicians further reinforce this perception.
However, two aspects need to be addressed. First, the Israeli public is desperate for any solution. The recurring cycles of violence and their human cost have created a strong desire for decisive action that will "make it stop." This sentiment is reinforced by the growing opposition to “managing the conflict” in the same manner as before—an approach associated with Benjamin Netanyahu.
Therefore, Israeli support for Trump’s plan can be understood as a desire for an active and sustainable resolution, as well as opposition to the current status quo. This is also reflected in the willingness of 60% of Israelis (as indicated in an Accord Institute poll) to engage in a political process that could lead to a two-state solution. While the two approaches may seem opposed, both stem from Israelis’ desire for a solution.
The second point to consider is how Trump’s decisiveness affects Netanyahu. On one hand, it strengthens Netanyahu's image as a statesman, allowing him to make promises of deporting Palestinians to his political base. On the other hand, it casts him as a hesitant leader compared to Trump’s proactive and even aggressive approach.
We at LIBRAEL were very clear: anyone who wants to leave Gaza should be allowed to, but forcibly displacing people is both morally deplorable and practically impossible.
3. Polls and Public Opinion
The current coalition has seen a slight rise in a recent election poll, now standing at 52 seats. Likud remains the largest party, polling between 22 and 25 seats. However, projections still indicate that if elections were held today, the anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc would win and form a government. According to the polls, opposition parties (Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, National Unity, the Democrats, and Ra'am) would secure 62 seats, coalition parties 52, and the Arab party Hadash-Ta’al 6 seats.
If former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett were to form a new party, he would receive the highest number of seats (24, compared to Likud’s 21 under Netanyahu). However, most of his support would come at the expense of opposition parties - his political anti-Netanyahu allies. In a scenario where Bennett enters the race, Yisrael Beiteinu would drop from 16 seats to 10, the Democrats from 12 to 9, the National Unity Party from 17 to 9, and Yesh Atid from 13 to 10.
Additionally, the poll shows overwhelming public support (70%) for continuing the hostage deal, with a preference for the next phase of releases to occur in a single round.
4. "Qatargate"
In recent months, revelations have emerged about three senior advisers to Prime Minister Netanyahu who provided public relations services to companies promoting Qatar’s interests. The most notable figure among them is Ari Feldstein, Netanyahu’s spokesperson for military affairs, who is suspected of leaking classified documents. (this comes after he was hired for the role without a security clearance.)
Alongside him, spokesmen Yonatan Urich and Srulik Einhorn operated, via private firms, a campaign aimed at improving Qatar’s global image and downplaying its support for terrorism. The prime minister and his advisers deny the allegations.
This controversy unfolds amid harsh criticism in Israel against Qatar for funding Hamas (with Netanyahu’s approval and encouragement) and hosting the group’s senior leadership. The Shin Bet is expected to launch an investigation, though this move has been met with attacks from the coalition, which claims the agency has a conflict of interest due to its role in the failures of October 7.
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