In Washington, I Heard the Alarm Bells for Israel

(by Rotem Oreg-Kalisky, founder and director of LIBRAEL; the opinions expressed are his alone; originally published on Ha'aretz)

Let’s begin with a basic assumption: there is no Israel without America - at least not the Israel we want to live in. An Israel with a thriving economy, an advanced security establishment, and a vibrant democracy that enjoys international cooperation and a diplomatic umbrella - all of this would not be possible without the United States.

Even in the 1950s, in Ben-Gurion’s 18 Points document, the first prime minister referred to the need for an alliance with a global power. In the decades since, a multifaceted alliance with the U.S. has taken shape, grounded in shared values of democracy, liberty, “unlimited possibilities,” and the Judeo-Christian tradition; shared interests such as ensuring the flow of goods through the Suez Canal, maintaining stable oil prices, and an intelligence, operational, and strategic partnership during the Cold War (and later, during the War on Terror); and the bond between the peoples, based on Israel’s image as “David surrounded by Goliaths,” the cultural and political power of American Jews, and the religious beliefs of evangelical Christians.

Israel's first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion. Even in the 1950s he saw need for an alliance with a global power.

But this is precisely where the problem lies: the U.S.-Israel alliance was created in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s - in a world that no longer exists, where the interests and values guiding both countries were different.

America’s strategic priorities have shifted, and more and more Americans do not see the security value in giving nearly $4 billion each year to a regional power. While Israeli society, scarred by terror attacks and wars, has grown skeptical about peace, American society has lost its finest in Iraq and Afghanistan and has grown skeptical of wars. A whole generation of Americans is coming of age with no memory of 9/11 but with a very clear memory of the War on Terror and its costs.

Young Jews, educated through “Israel education” that told them Israel could do no wrong and must always be defended, arrive on college campuses and social media and encounter the less glamorous side of the Israeli story. They feel they were lied to and exploited. Even young evangelicals are proving to be far more liberal than their parents.

To all this, we must add the internal polarization within American society - a polarization unrelated to Israel or the conflict - expressed in growing distrust between the parties and their voters.

Israel, facing all this, is still offering outdated merchandise from the 1980s: “bipartisanship.” When not flirting with the dangerous gamble that we should invest only in Republicans (there is no worse investment strategy than putting all your money into a single stock), Israel and its leaders - from across the political spectrum - talk about “restoring bipartisanship.” The delusion that we can somehow persuade, for example, Senators Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren - each convinced the other is destroying America - to set aside their differences and unite around Israel is exactly that: a delusion.

Senators Tez Cruz (left) and Elizabeth Warren. The delusion we can get them to set aside their differences and unite around Israel is exactly that: a delusion.

People used to describe the distribution of political views in society using a Gaussian bell curve: fringe on the right, fringe on the left, and most people scattered somewhere in the center. I want to propose a new thesis, based on things I heard in the offices of senior members of Congress during LIBRAEL’s recent visit to Washington: today there are two bell curves in the U.S. - a Republican one and a Democratic one.

The left edge of the Republican bell curve and the right edge of the Democratic bell curve meet in what we once called “the center,” but it is neither large nor popular. The right fringe of the Republican bell curve openly flirts with fascism and Nazism, and the left fringe of the Democratic bell curve embraces socialism and communism. At both extremes, Zionism is a dirty word, and “global elites” - we all know who that refers to - are the enemy.

But within both bell curves there is a critical mass of voters and legislators who cannot be described as “moderates” or “centrists,” yet they are pragmatic. In both cases, this critical mass looks at Israel and says, with some justification, that things need to change. “The partnership with Israel is important,” senior Democratic congressional staff told me, “but we are not going back to October 6.”

The Democratic bell curve (left) and the Republican bell curve (right). There is a critical mass in both curves, who cannot be described as “moderates” or “centrists,” yet they are pragmatic.

Israel’s leadership must wake up. What good is it that working-level professionals in the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry also see these dangerous trends and the shifting nature of American society, if they have no political or public backing to pursue the steps needed to adjust the partnership - an adjustment essential for preserving and strengthening the alliance?

The election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City and his emergence as a symbol of the Democratic Party, along with the complete normalization of neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes across Republican networks, are alarm bells - warning not about any specific individual, but about a massive iceberg that the ship called “Israel” is heading straight toward. One can only hope that this time, someone will listen.

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