The Iran War Exposes Israel’s New Swing Voters: The “Woke Hawks”

Israeli politics is often described in familiar terms: left versus right, peace camp versus security camp, liberal Tel Avivians versus conservatives in the periphery. But these old categories are increasingly failing to capture the political reality on the ground.

A new and rapidly growing political identity is emerging in Israel - one that does not fit comfortably into the traditional camps, as it blends liberal positions on social issues with risk-averse, even conservative, security positions. We call them the “Woke Hawks.”

A Woke Hawk. They might might think of themselves as: “socially I’m on the left, security-wise I’m on the right.”

Bluntly, these Israelis might think of themselves as: “socially I’m on the left, security-wise I’m on the right.” They believe deeply in liberal democracy, gender equality, and the rule of law. They are overwhelmingly supportive of LGBTQ+ rights. They likely see Israeli Arabs as equal citizens whose participation in society is not just possible but desirable. They marched in the streets to defend Israel’s judiciary. They fiercely oppose religious coercion and resent the growing political power of the ultra-Orthodox establishment. In their worldview, even as a Jewish state, Israel must remain a modern, liberal democracy, in which church and state are completely separate, and integrated into the Western world.

And yet, when it comes to national security and foreign policy, they are anything but dovish.

The “Woke Hawks” are deeply skeptical about the prospects for a Palestinian state, either “under current conditions” or at all - not necessarily because they long for a “Greater Israel” as promised by God, or because they see the Palestinians as inferior to Jews, but because of skepticism about Palestinian society’s willingness to accept Israel’s very existence.

The trauma of October 7 convinced many of them that “buying silence” - the unofficial Netanyahu policy that led to October 7 - brought nothing but bloodshed. Instead, they support a proactive, assertive security doctrine that does not “contain” threats or delay them, but confronts them when they appear.

The Woke Hawks would have preferred Israel to go to this war alone, with only “backstage” support from the U.S., instead of American troops being put on the line.

This worldview also explains their strong support for confronting Iran. They see Iran - or more accurately, the Iranian regime - not just as another geopolitical rival, but as the central engine of instability and violence across the Middle East. If they support toppling the regime, it is not because they are unaware of the risks and costs, but because they refuse to accept another enemy committed to Israel’s destruction. Ideally, by the way, they would have preferred Israel to go to this war alone, with only “backstage” support from the U.S., instead of American troops being put on the line.

In the old paradigm, this would seem to place the “Woke Hawks” within the political orbit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies. As Netanyahu has come to realize that his old policy of “containment” is not just strategically dangerous but also politically damaging, when it comes to the core security questions of the moment - Palestinian statehood, enforcing the ceasefire in Lebanon, and confronting Iran - his instincts and those of the Woke Hawks often align.

But even post-October 7, Israeli politics is never just about foreign policy. For these voters, Netanyahu represents something else entirely: a total sellout who conceded everything to the religious segments of Israeli society. The judicial overhaul, which sparked the largest protest movement in Israel’s history, is seen by them as a direct threat to Israeli democracy. The growing concessions to ultra-Orthodox parties - on issues ranging from exemptions from military service (even during war) to funding religious institutions that do not teach math and English, thus keeping ultra-Orthodox communities unable to fully participate in the workforce - are viewed as a betrayal of the social contract that binds Israeli society together. They are also frustrated by Netanyahu, a secular Jew and relatively socially liberal himself, who never stood up against anti-gay legislation or gender-segregation initiatives from his coalition allies.

If they reluctantly drift back to Netanyahu because of security concerns, the current coalition could retain power. But if their anger over democratic erosion and religious coercion proves stronger, they may rally behind opposition parties - particularly if those parties adopt a hawkish approach.

To the “Woke Hawks,” these policies represent a form of internal retreat: a weakening of the very democratic and civic foundations that make Israel worth defending. This creates a profound political tension. On security issues, they feel little affinity with the traditional Israeli left, or even the center. On domestic issues, they cannot support the current coalition. As a result, many of them are politically homeless.

And that is precisely why they may become the most important voting bloc in Israel’s next elections. If they reluctantly drift back to Netanyahu because of security concerns, the current coalition - or something close to it - could retain power. But if their anger over democratic erosion and religious coercion proves stronger, they may rally behind opposition parties - particularly if those parties adopt a hawkish approach. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman are possible options.

In other words, the next election will not be decided only by the traditional battle between the liberals and the conservatives. It will hinge on a different question entirely: where will the Woke Hawks land?

Their numbers are growing. Their identity is still forming. And their vote is up for grabs.

In the coming election, they will not simply participate in the political contest.

They will decide it.

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