POLITICO Poll: Israel is losing America, But We Can Still Win it Back
- 7 hours ago
- 7 min read
A new POLITICO poll found what everybody should have realized by now: Israel is losing America. Not in the formal sense of a geopolitical rupture or a diplomatic crisis, but in something far more fundamental: the erosion of public consent for the relationship itself.
There’s a broad discourse on whether this has to do solely with Israeli policies - meaning a mere change of government will do wonders - or whether it is deeply rooted in the new American society. We finally have an answer:
19% of Americans are supportive of Israel and approve of the Israeli government’s actions;
20% more are supportive of Israel but oppose the government’s actions;
23% disapprove of both Israel and its government;
and a plurality don’t have a strong opinion or don’t know (19% each).
On the good side, it means Israel has 58% of Americans it can win back (see below on how). On the bad side, 23% of Americans (including no less than 36% of Gen Z and 33% of Harris voters) seem to have a deeper opposition to Israel itself: that’s not something that mere wiser diplomacy or even policy changes can easily amend.
Let’s be clear: contrary to what some alarmists would like to think, there is a sizable, reachable bloc of Americans - especially liberals - for whom the “problem” is not Jewish self‑determination or Israel’s existence, but the current actions and policies of Israel.
That is ground that can be regained with diplomacy that actually speaks with critical voices (and does not dismiss them as “uninformed,” “brainwashed,” or “antisemitic”) combined with wiser policy choices:
taking seriously nationalist violence in the West Bank;
phasing out military aid;
openly opposing further U.S. involvement in a war with Iran; and
curbing the more extreme forces in our political system.
But it would be self‑deception to pretend that policy changes alone, dramatic as they may be, will “fix” the problem. There is also a hardening minority - especially among younger and more progressive Americans - for whom the very idea of a nation‑state for the Jewish people is illegitimate.
In POLITICO’s data, 23% of Americans say they "do not support either Israel or its government", a large minority that is essentially identical to the one that prefers some form of one‑state framework from the river to the sea, whether “a state of all its citizens” or a Palestinian state that replaces Israel (see graph below).
Both of these outcomes mean that the only nation‑state of the Jewish people would cease to exist, taking away a millennia‑long aspiration of millions of people who were persecuted throughout those millennia.
That is not a debate about borders; it is a debate about whether the Jewish people have the right, like any other people (think of Ukrainians or Taiwanese), to collective self‑determination at all. No ceasefire solution or humanitarian gesture will solve that on its own, and Israel will have to present a credible liberal‑Zionist vision that justifies what we see as a self‑evident truth. That may be annoying or “not fair” (“why is Israel the only country that has to justify its existence?”), but we all know that sometimes life just isn’t fair.
This is also proof that the comforting mantras from the government’s offices in Jerusalem and the IDF’s headquarters in Tel Aviv are hollow. For decades, Israel framed itself as a “model ally” and “the tip of the spear” against shared threats - at first Soviet expansion, then global terrorism, now Iran.
That language still resonates with older, more conservative Americans (48% of Baby Boomers think the U.S. and Israel should work together against shared threats). But among younger Americans (18-34), 39% say the U.S. should distance itself from Israel even in the face of shared threats, and 39% of college‑educated Americans say the same. Meanwhile, 10% of Americans say flat‑out that the U.S. and Israel do not share common threats at all.
While Israel does have shared threats and shared interests with the U.S., it seems that repeating the “head of the spear” claims often falls on deaf ears with some core demographics.
The problem is not that Americans cannot imagine shared interests with Israel (41% of Americans believe our foreign‑policy objectives always or mostly align, compared to only 26% who don’t). It is that many are no longer willing to subordinate other values - human rights, peace, and justice - to those interests.
We must also talk about the elephant in the room: AIPAC and the rest of the pro‑Israel lobbying groups. When 41% of Americans say special interests have too much influence on U.S. politics, and 40% say the same about foreign governments, a pro‑Israel strategy built around “AIPAC will handle it” is neither sustainable nor smart. The poll also found that no less than 38% of Americans who plan to vote Democrat in November oppose AIPAC’s activities (only 16% support them), meaning AIPAC’s hopes to remain bipartisan is simply doomed to fail.
But what about the Republicans? They’ve still got Israel’s back, right? This is what Republicans (and their ideological allies in Israel) would like to believe. The truth is that even though the poll shows that most Republicans remain supportive of Israel, 35% of Trump voters and 37% of MAGA Republicans believe Israel committed genocide in Gaza - not that far from the 41% of the general public who believe that. Had we been advising the Prime Minister, we’d tell him to abandon his “put all the eggs in the Trump basket” strategy ASAP.
So where does that leave Israel, if it wants to remain a true ally and not a political football, let alone a pariah state?
First, we cannot rely just on Trump. We will forever be grateful to the President for releasing the hostages and ending the Gaza war. Almost all Israelis are. But Trump won’t be in office forever, and even within the GOP more and more Republicans are tired of Israel.
On the Israeli‑Palestinian conflict, for example, 34% of MAGA supporters favor a binational one‑state solution (so much for “standing with the only Jewish state in the world”) and 26% favor continued Israeli control of the West Bank and Gaza, while only 18% support a two‑state solution. That is not a “pro‑Israel” bloc in the sense of supporting a sustainable Jewish and democratic future; it is a bloc that likes Israeli hard power and defiance of international law. If Israel suffices with “American support” as mere “MAGA support,” it will not only lose the allies it needs for the long term, but will become - if it has not already - a pawn in Trump’s game.
Both Israelis and Americans have a way to go. For Americans, especially liberals, this way includes reassuring Israeli fears and addressing their well‑earned skepticism about peace.
It includes differentiating between policies and rhetoric that challenge the government (such as calling out nationalist violence) and moves that harm ordinary Israelis (such as blocking sales of defensive systems like Iron Dome). It also includes addressing the lack of trust many Israelis feel towards liberals in America - and while we at LIBRAEL fight tooth and nail to dismantle that lack of trust, it has to be backed with moves and gestures from Washington.
And just as Americans will have to regain Israelis’ trust, we in Israel will have to regain American trust. On the policy side, there are clearly “low‑hanging fruits” that would rebuild liberal support:
Phasing out military aid - Israel has a GDP larger than Norway; it makes no sense to receive U.S. taxpayers’ money, no matter how “strategic” or “beneficial” it is to America;
Seriously addressing nationalist violence in the West Bank;
Enabling a pro‑coexistence governing alternative in Gaza, contingent on deradicalization and counter‑insurgency efforts; and
At least rhetorically expressing a desire to live in peace.
On the identity side, Israel will have to talk less like a fortified garrison whose justification for existence depends on its technological or security value to America, and more like a shining city on a hill that is a real beacon of freedom in this region. This is a data‑driven diplomatic strategy: 30% of Americans still say the U.S. and Israel should work together against shared threats, but 31% say the U.S. should distance itself from Israel even in the face of such threats. If Israel wants to win back that second group, it will have to show not only that it fights the enemies in front of us, but that it lives up to the values behind us: ensuring freedom and equality to its citizens, and pursuing peace - without jeopardizing our security or our identity - with our neighbours.
Israel is losing America, slowly and steadily, but not irreversibly. The same survey that shows deep anger and alienation also shows a huge potential: Americans who still think in terms of overlapping goals, who are open to supporting Israel but reject its current course, who want to see Israeli security and Jewish self‑determination balanced with Palestinian rights and regional peace. Even if those goals look ambitious, it is on us to pursue them.
Persuasion cannot come from slogans about “model allies,” out‑of‑touch clichés like “only democracy in the Middle East,” or from leaning solely on a shrinking, aging base of unquestioning support. It must come from a different kind of Israeli message to America: we hear your concerns; we share your values; and we are willing to work hard alongside you so that our alliance will survive. This is what we at LIBRAEL are doing.
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