Why Netanyahu Can Still Win
- Jul 29
- 7 min read
For months, and especially since the election was called, the conventional wisdom in Israel has been remarkably consistent: Benjamin Netanyahu's political career is nearing its end.
The polls have been grim for the prime minister. Nearly every poll projects his coalition falling well short of a parliamentary majority, hovering around 51-52 seats when he needs at least 61 (out of 120). Public trust in his leadership collapsed after October 7 - the greatest security failure in Israel's history. Netanyahu, who portrayed himself as "Mr. Security," is now widely associated with the very disaster he promised to prevent.
Nor has the government's performance since then helped. Netanyahu has become increasingly dependent on his ultra-Orthodox partners, advancing deeply unpopular legislation providing them with welfare benefits and draft waivers while hundreds of thousands of reservists are still carrying the burden of an extended war. Not to mention the judicial reform that tore Israelis apart throughout 2023.
Even electorally, the math appears unfavorable. Most polls suggest that Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party is unlikely to cross the electoral threshold. If that happens, several seats' worth of right-wing votes would simply disappear - making it extraordinarily difficult for Netanyahu's bloc to assemble a governing coalition.
It is therefore understandable why many Israelis, and many international observers, assume that this government is on borrowed time.
But elections are not won by what people think. They are won by what people vote. And despite everything that has happened, Netanyahu remains very capable of winning.
Here are four reasons why.
Demography Is Not on the Opposition's Side
Israel is changing.
Unlike in most Western countries, younger Israelis are, on average, more religious, more nationalist, and more hawkish than older generations. In an N12 poll conducted in July 2022 surveying only young Israelis, the Netanyahu bloc received 71 seats, while ultimately winning 64 seats in the actual elections.
October 7 only accelerated these trends. Many first-time voters entered adulthood during one of the bloodiest periods in Israel's history. They experienced Hamas's massacre, months of intense fighting, lost friends on a weekly basis, and witnessed missile attacks from Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon.
Their political instincts have naturally shifted even more toward security than before, and the aggressive policies Netanyahu has pursued since October 7 might appeal to them, even if they have failed to improve Israel's strategic position vis-à-vis Gaza and Iran.
The opposition often assumes that public anger at Netanyahu will automatically translate into support for alternative leaders, but that assumption is far from obvious. Many younger voters no longer trust Netanyahu personally and are frustrated by the stagnation on our borders, holding him responsible for October 7. Yet they are not convinced that the opposition offers a more compelling vision for Israel's future, especially as most opposition leaders called for an earlier end to the war.
Opposition leaders have spent much of the past three years defining themselves by what they oppose rather than by what they intend to build. That may not be enough to swing enough of these voters.
Never Underestimate Netanyahu the Campaigner
Whatever one thinks of Benjamin Netanyahu, one cannot deny that he is probably the greatest political campaigner in Israeli history. Again and again, Netanyahu has entered difficult campaigns while trailing his opponents, only to outperform expectations.
And this election is unlike any other. This will likely be the most important campaign of his life, as it is not merely about another four years in office. It is about his historical legacy, something that, as a history enthusiast, Netanyahu is acutely aware of.
Losing the election means losing the ability to shape the narrative of October 7 and the war that followed, as well as losing his leverage over the courts. No one is likely to grant him a pardon - or, more accurately, cancel his trial, since pardoning someone who hasn't been convicted is not possible - if he becomes leader of the opposition, and negotiating a plea deal would become much more difficult.
Politicians fight hardest when they believe everything is at stake, and no Israeli politician has ever had more at stake than Netanyahu does now.
His campaign will almost certainly focus less on defending his record than on redefining the choice before voters. Rather than asking whether Israelis are satisfied with his government (because on almost every issue the answer is a clear "no"), he will ask whether they trust "the Left," even though three of the four Zionist opposition parties are either right-wing or center-right, and the left-wing party, The Democrats, is led by Yair Golan, a former general who rushed into combat on October 7 and saved dozens of Israelis. He will also focus intensely on whether Israelis want Arab parties in the government, even though he himself legitimized Mansour Abbas in the 2021 elections, only to turn against him once Abbas sided with Bennett.
Many dismiss these messages as cynical or divisive, but that does not mean they are ineffective. Netanyahu has spent decades mastering precisely this kind of politics. In most cases, it has worked.
If you liked our work, that means you share our vision and values. You can help us live up to the urgent task we’ve taken upon ourselves by donating to LIBRAEL.
Choice Architecture Is the Queen of Elections
Choice architecture - what parties are running, and in what form - wins or loses a coalition. Netanyahu understands this better than almost anyone.
He is notorious for maximizing every vote in his bloc. Just look at how he forced Smotrich, Ben Gvir, and Avi Maoz to run in a joint list in the previous elections. If Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionism party appear unlikely to enter the Knesset, Netanyahu will push for another merger with Itamar Ben Gvir's Jewish Power (this time with the National Security Minister at the top) or another technical arrangement.
The opposition, however, has consistently struggled to demonstrate similar discipline. Every election raises the same uncertainty surrounding Israel's Arab parties: Will they unite? Will they split? Will enough Arab voters turn out? If one or more Arab parties fail to cross the electoral threshold, the opposition could lose several seats overnight. A Jewish-Arab party called "A Place for All" (built on the grassroots movement "Standing Together") is also likely to run - and also likely to fail to cross the threshold.
In a cynical, election-exhausted society like Israel, these technical questions often matter much more than public opinion itself.
The Satellite Parties Could Decide the Election
Perhaps the most underestimated variable is the emergence of "satellite parties."
These parties present themselves as pragmatic centrists calling for national unity, "ending the boycott culture," and healing political polarization. They include Benny Gantz (formerly Netanyahu's chief rival), "Zionist Home" (formerly The Reservists), right-wing figures who served under Netanyahu, such as Gilad Erdan and Ayelet Shaked, both still considering whether to run, and a grassroots-led party based on "The Fourth Quarter."
At first glance, they appear politically harmless, as most polls show none of them crossing the electoral threshold. But they may prove decisive. Conventional wisdom suggests that most of their potential voters come from right-wing or center-right Israelis seeking change after October 7 rather than from Netanyahu's ideological base. Every vote they attract is therefore more likely to come at the opposition's expense.
Even if these parties ultimately fail to cross the electoral threshold, they may still determine the election by wasting tens of thousands of votes that would otherwise have strengthened the anti-Netanyahu bloc. In that sense, parties that present themselves as bridges across Israel's political divide could become one of Netanyahu's greatest electoral assets.
What Would Re-Election of This Government Mean?
None of this means Netanyahu will win, or even that he is likely to. The public's frustration is real, including with some of his more inflammatory campaign messages. The liberal public in Israel is more motivated to vote than ever, and Netanyahu's base has a lot of reasons to stay home on election day. His coalition remains deeply unpopular, especially the ultra-Orthodox parties. And while the polls may be wrong, it is difficult to imagine that they are wrong by that much.
But none of these factors guarantees defeat. Those who wish to replace this government therefore face a challenge greater than simply criticizing it: they must persuade skeptical voters that they offer a compelling alternative, coordinate effectively across parties, and avoid wasting votes.
As we argued previously, Israel's next coalition will determine not only who governs, but which Israel emerges from this extraordinary period of crisis. A renewed Netanyahu coalition would likely continue the constitutional confrontation that has divided Israeli society, deepen its dependence on anti-liberal coalition partners, keep the confrontational approach on Israel's borders, expand the privileges of the ultra-Orthodox, and maintain and expand the boycott of the Democratic Party and much of American Jewry. And to top it all off, it will do so while claiming - not without basis - that it has full democratic legitimacy: "The people knew what they were voting for."
Comments