The Golden Age of the U.S.-Israel Relations Might End. We Must Prepare.

Originally published on Makor Rishon, by Rotem Oreg-Kalisky, founder and director of LIBRAEL.

January 20, 2029. California Governor Gavin Newsom is sworn in as America's 48th president, with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as his VP. Amid sweeping economic and social programs branded "fixing the damage of the Trump administration," the new president vows a full audit of U.S. alliances: who are our true like-minded allies - countries committed to human rights, democracy, and peaceful conflict resolution - and who are not?

Israel must grasp that the Democratic Party has shifted. There is less and less patience for more and more policies of Israel.

In Jerusalem, the chaos begins. Secretary of State Raphael Warnock - who as a senator repeatedly voted against military aid to Israel - is not returning calls. Treasury Secretary Elizabeth Warren, a hallmark of the progressive left, pledges to block "even a single dollar for maintaining apartheid in the West Bank." U.N. Ambassador Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declares she'll veto no ceasefire resolution if Israel-Gaza fighting flares anew. The government clings to Defense Secretary Josh Shapiro - a religious Jew, openly Zionist, former IDF volunteer - as its lifeline. But even he insists the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East is over, that Iran's threat neutralized, and Israel - fresh off a Trump-era aid deal - can handle its own challenges.

This scenario is fictional for now. But it could happen, and Israel's public - and the next government - face two paths forward.

Governor Newsom. He and most of the Democratic party are not hostile to Israel - but they are exhausted from backing Israeli policies that clash with their values.

Path One: Panic, Anger, and Denial

One response is pure panic: "How could this be? How did extremists hijack the Democratic Party - the party of Truman, Kennedy, Clinton, and Biden?"

Conspiracy theories erupt fast: "Qatar poisoned their minds," "Muslims took over America like they did Europe," "Bibi spat on the Democrats, now they're settling the score," "Woke culture makes them hate anything national or traditional - Israel's just collateral," or "If we'd ended the occupation, none of this would have happened." Wails of mourning for the "great friend Trump" echo through Jerusalem's streets. Slogans like "We outlived Pharaoh, we'll outlived this" dominate news studios. Israel curls into a hedgehog - self-righteous, ideologically pure, pinning hopes on "in four years, you'll see, Marco Rubio will win."

Path Two: Face Reality, Adapt Strategically

The better path accepts hard truths, however inconvenient. Israel must grasp that the Democratic Party has shifted - weariness from endless wars, soaring cost of living, and debates on racial and social justice have pulled it leftward, including on Israel - especially as Israel is drifting to the right. There is less and less patience for more and more policies of Israel, from potential escalations across the Middle East to the ongoing presence in the West Bank.

This means tough, often uncomfortable dialogues to preserve the partnership. Listen to criticism without exploding. Own our mistakes (and boy, we make mistakes) and actually working to make amends. And yes, it also means to make painful choices: which policy elements can we concede, adjust, or sacrifice? Like a chess grandmaster, Israel must decide - which of its policies are "pawns" to trade, and what is "the king" to defend at all costs.

Fantasy Isn't Strategy

Israelis Fantasizing about Marco Rubio or Pete Hegseth as Trump's natural heirs - writing Israel a blank check - is possible but far from certain. Especially since even Republicans aren't thrilled about endless wars. Vice President JD Vance, the more isolationist voice in the administration, stays relatively ambivalent on the Iran war - and for a good reason. If casualties mount and gas prices soar, turning it into a political stain, he'll distance himself fast.

Israel enjoyed a golden age in U.S. politics: overwhelming, unconditional, bipartisan support. Demographics and ideology show it's ending. Israelis can scream "antisemites!", blame Qatar, nostalgically long for Clinton and Biden (and in my scenario, boy oh boy we'll miss Biden), or daydream "Marco would have fixed it all." But complaints don't build nations.

Facing a theoretical Newsom administration - or any other Democratic administration, for that matter - clinging to "Our Historic Birthright" or our massive intelligence sharing or Iran War contributions won't suffice. Israel must deliver value in domains that matter to Democrats: technology, health, education, climate, inequality reduction. Shared values must evolve too: less Judeo-Christian heritage, more civil rights; less "security," more "peace"; less divine promise or historic right as Israel's justification, more "the only place the Jewish people - a historically persecuted minority - can live in peace and security."

I Know This Democratic Party

I've visited the offices of some of the names I mentioned. I meet their voters. I speak with the students interning with them, who may inherit their seats in a decade. Contrary to the scare stories, they don't "hate us" - not in the numbers Israelis fear, anyway. Today's Democratic mainstream, well-represented by Newsom and others, isn't structurally hostile to Israel. It doesn't see Israel's existence as original sin. It even gets Israel's real security needs. But it's exhausted from politically, economically, and militarily backing policies that clash with its values worldview.

We can ignore this. Or we can learn to work with it.

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